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Post-crisis restoration of China's image
According to research by the TALAP center, the crisis of 2021 significantly affected the global perception of China. While China's median positions had been gradually deteriorating, this became particularly noticeable in 2021. Kazakhstani media, in turn, continue to present China as a reliable partner and initiator of joint projects. Chinese media reciprocate, forming a positive image of Kazakhstan as a peaceful and rapidly developing country. However, as experts emphasize, stereotypes and concerns about China are still deeply rooted in Kazakhstani society.
The head of the social service of the TALAP center, candidate of geographical sciences Evgeny Khan, notes that concerns related to China may change under the influence of external events and consistent policy.
- Despite the rationalization of perceptions after the events of 2022, fears have temporarily receded, but that does not mean they have disappeared forever. At some point, they may resurface, - he said.
Concerns of Kazakhstanis
According to experts, several negative narratives dominate in Kazakhstan regarding China, three of which remain persistent:
- concerns that China wants to acquire land in Central Asia;
- the quality of Chinese goods;
- economic dependence.
- Speaking of negative narratives, one of them is land trade. That is, concerns that China will seize Kazakh land. In 2022-2023, there was a rationalization of perceptions. And these fears have temporarily receded against the backdrop of other changes, under which it was time to adapt. They haven't gone anywhere. They have just lost relevance for now, but that doesn't mean anything; at some point, they may resurface. Speaking of changes - this is the coronavirus pandemic, which forced the population to rethink many things. External reasons related to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and internal ones related to protests, the launch of political and economic reforms. The population has largely rethought its foreign policy map and its place on it. And in this situation, China has gained its relative leadership, - noted the expert.
Perception in different regions
Perception of China varies depending on the region of Kazakhstan.
- In the east of the country, closer to the border with China, there is a greater understanding of the importance of cooperation with the PRC, but concerns are also stronger.
- In western Kazakhstan, despite protests over land issues, the positive perception of China turned out to be higher, which is associated with rationalization and a shift to new narratives.
- The increase in positive perception was ensured by Kazakh-speaking citizens of middle age with varying income levels. In western Kazakhstan, there is an interesting transition where emotional stereotypes have taken a back seat, - noted Evgeny Khan.
Youth opinion in Central Asia
Research among students from Central Asia studying in China shows a contradictory perception. Young people highly value China's economic achievements, its infrastructure, and technological innovations. However, at the same time:
- China is perceived as the 'civilizational Other';
- the development model of China does not seem suitable for Central Asian countries;
- students fear possible economic dependence.
- These concerns are often related not so much to Chinese expansion as to distrust of their own governments, - adds Evgeny Khan.
Chinese marketplaces and the market of Kazakhstan
Recently, there has been a wave of statements in Kazakhstan that Chinese marketplaces may harm small and medium-sized businesses. The main concerns are that the affordable prices of goods from China undermine the competitiveness of domestic producers. However, as Askar Kysykov claims, the situation is not so straightforward.
- It should be understood that these goods often do not overlap with the nomenclature of goods produced in Kazakhstan. Most of these goods are technological, which we do not produce. The balance between consumer and producer interests must be taken into account. We see that prices with delivery from China are sometimes cheaper than domestic counterparts. This is a signal for our producers to think about their competitiveness, - he said.
He also emphasized that Kazakhstani consumers often buy goods on foreign platforms due to high inflation and rising prices. This indicates the need to optimize production within the country.
Chinese investments
Chinese investments play an important role in diversifying Kazakhstan's economy. Among the major projects:
- Zhanatas Wind Farm.
- Tainsha-Mai (oil production).
- Zhetysu Wolfram Mining and Processing Plant.
It is worth noting that China ranks fourth in terms of investment volume in Kazakhstan. However, in recent years, the growth rate of investments from Russia has surpassed that of China. Nevertheless, it is expected that in the coming years, Chinese investments will grow due to large projects planned earlier.
- We see that in the coming years, China will begin to actively increase its capital-intensive investments in Kazakhstan. Last year was productive in terms of the number of agreements reached, and further growth is forecasted for 2024, - said Kysykov.
Perception of China in the geopolitical context
China, in the perceptions of Kazakhstanis, is a necessary element of the surrounding world order. Whatever geopolitical alliances may form, it is important for the residents of Kazakhstan that the PRC is included in them.
Analysis of cooperation with different countries:
- China dominates in economy, education, and medicine;
- Russia plays an important role in security and culture;
- The USA and the EU are viewed as political partners;
- Central Asia strengthens its significance in cultural and regional interaction.
How to reduce social discontent?
Researchers suggest looking for new approaches to reduce social tension. Support for the population and strengthening trust can be achieved through a transparent decision-making process and more active involvement of citizens in discussions of investment projects.
- We see the need for joint efforts to improve social infrastructure and create new jobs, - emphasizes Evgeny Khan.
Tengiz and Chevron: opinion of Kazakhstanis
Chevron owns 50% of LLP 'Tengizchevroil' (TCO), which develops the Tengiz and Korolev oil and gas fields. Participants in 'Tengizchevroil' also include ExxonMobil (25%), KazMunayGas (20%), and Lukarco (5%).
Against the backdrop of the approaching end of the contract with Chevron in 2033, surveys show that:
- 43% of respondents support an open competition to select a new partner, regardless of the country;
- 23% suggest 'renegotiating' with Chevron on new terms;
- 5% believe that the new investor should be China.
Despite ongoing social discontent, Chinese investments in Kazakhstan continue to grow. For successful cooperation, it is important to take public sentiments into account, actively involve citizens in decision-making, and work on reducing negative narratives, analysts suggest. Only in this way, in their opinion, can political loyalty and public trust be strengthened while maintaining beneficial economic relations with China.