Of all five Central Asian states, Kazakhstan demonstrates one of the most negative attitudes towards China. What causes this and whether the 'dislike' has any real grounds is something experts have been trying to understand for several years. The 'Voice of the People' has studied their conclusions.
Since 2020, the research center 'Talap' has been conducting large-scale social research on the attitudes of Kazakhstanis towards China and its citizens.
At the same time, there are also international studies and expert surveys showing that almost 30% of Kazakhstanis have negative feelings towards China. Only in Kyrgyzstan do people dislike the Celestial Empire more, with over 38% of respondents expressing negative attitudes towards the PRC.
However, as emphasized by the head of the sociological service of the 'Talap' center, Evgeny Khan, in Kazakhstani media, China is most often positioned as a reliable partner and initiator of joint projects. Kazakhstan, in publications of Chinese media, appears as a peaceful and rapidly developing country.
'At the same time, stereotypes about China persist in Kazakhstan. Overcoming these barriers requires certain efforts,' says Evgeny Khan.
Sociologists note that about 8 to 10 years ago, the attitude of Kazakhstanis towards China was predominantly negative.
There are several reasons - foreign, and later some Kazakhstani ones, wrote about the repressions against people from Central Asia in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, leading to a public perception that China dreams of buying vast lands in Kazakhstan for agriculture. Gradually, the attitude towards China became increasingly positive, reaching a balance between positive and negative opinions in 2019. Then the barometer of feelings among Kazakhstanis fell again due to the coronavirus pandemic. But after the events of 2022, Kazakhstanis suddenly realized that of the two neighbors, the southern one is dearer than the northern one.
'In 2022, China began to replace Russia on the foreign policy map of Kazakhstan. The stable lag of 20-30% in positive attitudes towards China compared to Russia disappeared in just one year, and for the first time since 2016, China was perceived more positively in Kazakhstan than the Russian Federation,' the study notes.
However, the negative attitude towards China among many Kazakhstanis is due to distrust not only of the Chinese.
'The youth of Central Asia who studied in China highly appreciate its economic achievements, infrastructure, and technological innovations. They do not share the typical fears of the Chinese threat. At the same time, they continue to perceive China as a civilizational 'Other,' whose development model does not suit their countries, and they fear excessive economic dependence on China. Interestingly, these concerns are more related not to China itself, but to distrust of their own government,' notes Evgeny Khan.
Overall, as sociological surveys indicate, positive attitudes towards China in Kazakhstan increase from East to West.
It is also noteworthy that each year, more and more factors lead Kazakhstanis to change their attitude towards China from negative to positive.
'In Kazakhstan, a more positive view is characteristic of the self-employed, people with high incomes, and Christians. Negative attitudes are more prevalent among the poorer segments, highly educated, and elderly citizens. In Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, on the contrary, the highly educated population has a more positive perception of the PRC. In Kyrgyzstan, this is also typical for men and high-income groups. In all three countries, elderly people have a more negative attitude towards China than the youth. Adherence to Islam did not show a significant correlation with the level of approval, while among Christians, a stable positive correlation is observed,' the authors of the study note.
At the same time, the number of people recognizing China's significant geopolitical influence is growing year by year. And slowly but surely, the number of respondents wanting to learn a bit more about China is increasing.
Thus, in the last two years, more than half of the respondents answered affirmatively to the question of whether they would like to learn the Chinese language.
A long time ago, there was a popular joke that optimists learn English, pessimists learn Chinese, and realists learn the Kalashnikov automatic rifle.
It is clear that the world is changing. And now realists are starting to learn the Chinese language. Because the growing influence of the Celestial Empire on all countries of the world, especially neighboring ones, can no longer be ignored.
At the same time, as experts emphasize, the fears of Kazakhstanis have not disappeared; the main one is the fear of losing land.
'In 2022-2023, there was a rationalization of perception. These fears were temporarily pushed aside against the backdrop of the changes that needed to be adapted to,' summarizes Evgeny Khan.