For three months now, the Middle East has been in a state of hybrid wars. Analysts around the world express serious concerns that the escalating conflict between Israel and HAMAS, against the backdrop of the tense situation on the Israel-Lebanon border, as well as due to provocations by the Houthis in Yemen and the Red Sea, could spill over into the entire region. However, the global economy and geopolitics are very cynical; while some countries are at war, others can improve their material situation. “The Voice of the People” asked experts how the Middle Eastern conflicts will affect Kazakhstan.
Who are the Houthis and what is happening?
The Houthis are a radical religious group that has controlled parts of Yemen since 2014. Since November 2023, in solidarity with the population of the Gaza Strip, they have periodically attacked vessels passing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The point of attack for the Houthis has been the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Moreover, the targets are mainly commercial vessels that have no connection to Israel.
As a result, many large shipowners have started to bypass Africa via the Cape of Good Hope in recent months, instead of sending ships through the now unsafe Suez Canal.
The new route is longer and more expensive, which is already affecting the final price of, for example, oil.
In December 2023, 22 countries formed a coalition to protect against the Houthis, and on January 10, 2024, the UN Security Council adopted an American resolution condemning the actions of the Houthis.
This provided the Coalition with justification for bombing Houthi bases in Yemen on January 12. However, on January 15, the Houthis resumed their attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
The war in the Middle East is not needed by the USA
Orientalist Zhanat Momynkulov emphasizes: the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is currently not beneficial for the USA, so they are trying to negotiate with all countries in the region, but this is not going well.
“Washington has failed to provide a clear strategy for exiting the deadlock regarding the prospects for achieving peace between Israel and HAMAS. This puts America in an awkward position with its Arab allies,” he notes.
Moreover, as the political scientist emphasizes, the far-right politicians in Israel want to change the status quo and finish the war that began in 2006 in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military is doing everything to escalate relations with Hezbollah. Israel wants the USA to continue protecting its main ally – the largest base in the Middle East. But the actions of Israeli partners undermine the authority of the USA in the region and in the world.
Against this backdrop, the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have become the last straw that provoked the Western coalition; however, the USA and the UK are still trying to prevent a full-scale war.
“According to NATO, the military actions of the allies against the Houthis were defensive in nature, aimed at protecting freedom of navigation in the region. Western allies are limited to air raids,” says Zhanat Momynkulov.
Will we find or lose in a war that is not ours?
Nevertheless, if relations near the Suez Canal continue to heat up, as the orientalist suggests, it will be bad for everyone, including ordinary Kazakhstanis, since part of our everyday goods is imported. And it may significantly increase in price due to rising transportation costs from the largest global producers.
But there are also positive scenarios for our country.
“The escalation of the crisis around the Red Sea may change the directions of major logistics routes and improve the prospects of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route,” predicts Momynkulov.
Political scientist Gaziz Abishev shares a similar opinion.
“The alternative land route from Southeast Asia to Western Europe runs through Kazakhstan. If, in some fantastic scenario, the waters of the Indian Ocean suddenly became impassable for commercial vessels, transit through Kazakhstan could increase dozens of times, thereby affecting international investments in the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Such is the law of nature – for something to increase somewhere, something must decrease somewhere,” he wrote in his Telegram channel.
It's better not to even think about such things...
But will this alternative, so beneficial for us, fantastic scenario be fully realized?
As economist and director of the applied research center TALAP Rahim Oshakbaev suggests, it is unlikely.
“Judging by what we see in the media, there is rather a ritual exchange of blows: Western countries needed to respond to something, and they did. This gives grounds to suggest that neither the USA, nor Iran, nor Israel, nor other countries are currently ready for a large-scale war in the Middle East. So I do not predict any radical changes in the historically established transport and logistics routes,” he says.
As the expert emphasizes, the USA learned from personal experience, first in Vietnam and then in Afghanistan, that waging any wars on foreign territory, especially with a hostile population, is futile.
“Israel is unlikely to be able to defeat HAMAS now. It can weaken its positions, it can destroy it, but over time new leaders of the movement will emerge and they will enter the struggle. It is impossible to defeat the Houthis either. Therefore, the huge coalition led by the USA and the UK is behaving very cautiously; they understand the futility of escalation,” notes Rahim Oshakbaev.
Read also: “Kazakhstani may go to fight for HAMAS - political scientist”
Moreover, as the expert reminds, radical groups have repeatedly demonstrated asymmetric use of force. Such was the attack by HAMAS on a music festival, but where is the guarantee that the Houthis will not use other radical retaliatory measures?
“If they are pressed hard, they may conduct an attack on the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, which could incredibly spike oil prices and provoke an already possible global crisis,” suggests Oshakbaev.
Moreover, the negative consequences of this theoretical act for Kazakhstan could be much stronger than the benefits from rising oil prices.
Earlier, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan reported that no Kazakhstani is registered with the consulate in Yemen.